Arsenal must defy history if they are to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Manchester United and reach the Champions League final.
The Gunners lost the first leg 1-0 at Old Trafford, and must overturn a trend that has seen only three of 12 teams win their semi-final ties after losing the first match away from home since the Champions League was established.
Added to that, Arsenal have never gone through after losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie.
Arsene Wenger’s side carry a 24-game unbeaten home record in the competition into the game, but must do more than just extend it following last week’s reverse in Manchester.
Sir Alex Ferguson has noted that, if United score, Arsenal must win by two goals to prevent the visitors progressing on away goals, saying the holders are just “one kick” away from the final.
If United progress, the omens are good for the final in Rome on May 27. They have won only three of their 10 Champions League and European Cup semi-finals, but each time they have made it to the final they have gone on to lift the trophy.
Rio Ferdinand is expected to return for United following a rib injury and Ferguson could field the same XI that performed impressively last Wednesday.
Edwin van der Sar returns in goal after being rested at the weekend, while Michael Carrick and Anderson should come back into midfield at the expense of veterans Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs.
Ferguson must decide whether to keep faith with striker Carlos Tevez, who started the first leg, or opt for mercurial Bulgarian Dimitar Berbatov.
Robin van Persie is back for Arsenal after injury and should partner Emmanuel Adebayor up front, although the Dutchman must first overcome a late fitness test.
Former United man Mikael Silvestre also faces a fitness test but should play at centre-back.
Cesc Fabregas, Samir Nasri, Kolo Toure,Manuel Almunia and Adebayor are among those to return after being rested at the weekend, but there is no place for the cup-tied Andrei Arshavin.
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KEY FACTS
Of the 12 previous Champions League semi-finals to have been won by the home side in the first leg, this victorious team has gone on to reach the final on nine occasions.
Manchester United were leading by one goal after the first leg of their semi-final tie against AC Milan in 2006-07 at Old Trafford (3-2), but missed out on getting to the final after a 3-0 away defeat.
This will be the fifth consecutive season that England have been represented by a side in the Champions League final.
Arsenal have never gone through after losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie.
United have won seven first-leg ties in the Champions League knockout stages – only going on to lose the next leg on one occasion – against AC Milan in 2007.
This match also marked the last time United lost in the Champions League, 24 games ago.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s men have conceded just one goal in their last seven European away fixtures.
The Gunners have only won two of their last seven matches against United at home in all competitions.
They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six encounters with Manchester Utd, in all competitions.
Arsenal have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 12 matches at the Emirates in all competitions.
On top of this, Wenger’s side has kept a clean sheet in each of their five Champions League matches at home this season.
Arsenal have not lost a Champions League home tie since the start of the 2004-05 season. It was against an English side (1-2 v Chelsea, quarter-final second leg). Since then, in 24 home games, the Gunners have won 16 and drawn eight.
Manchester United have not lost in any of the 11 Premier League and Champions League matches that Rio Ferdinand has not played in this season.
Since his return from injury, Fabregas has been involved in five of Arsenal’s last seven goals at Emirates Stadium in all competitions (two goals, three assists).
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Tags: Arsenal, Champions league, Football
